000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is moving W at 10 kt and is beginning to cross into the far eastern Pacific along 80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, from 04N to 12N between 77W and 86W, is being enhanced by the tropical wave and the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is along 91W from 04N to 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 86W and 99W. A tropical wave is along 112W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 14N between 103W and 113W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 126W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 5 kt. No significant convection is evident in the vicinity of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N103W to 08N117W to 08N132W. The ITCZ continues from 08N132W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 13N between 99W and 103W, from 04.5N to 08N between 117W and 121W, and from 06.5N to 09N between 129W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh NW winds are occurring W of Baja California, mainly for areas south of El Rosario, due to the pressure gradient between high pressure well W of the area and low pressure centered near Las Vegas, Nevada. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Fresh to locally strong S to SW gap winds are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California, aided by a surface trough over the Gulf, where seas are likely building up to 3 to 4 ft now. In the southern Gulf of California, winds have likely recently diminished to gentle to moderate, with 2 to 3 ft seas, except 4-5 ft near the entrance. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico, to the east of 109W, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a trough will deepen slightly over the lower Colorado River Valley and northern Gulf of California through Fri, while a weak ridge persists between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will support a continuation of fresh NW winds off Baja California through late Fri, with fresh to locally strong SW winds pulsing over the northern Gulf of California tonight and Thu night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A pulse of moderate to locally fresh gap winds is ongoing in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle and variable winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia. To the south of 02N, moderate S winds are present, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in S swell. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica in S swell. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere. Significant thunderstorm activity is affecting portions of the waters from Colombia through Nicaragua, from 04N to 13N between 77W and 88W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region and downwind to 89W, mainly at night, through Fri night. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds will continue west of Ecuador. Southerly swell of 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands should gradually subside to 5 to 6 ft by Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh SW winds are converging into the area where the tropical wave near 112W is interacting with the monsoon trough. Seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, southerly swell to 8 ft is reaching to the equator. Farther north and west, a ridge extends from 1032 high pressure centered well north of the area across the subtropical waters to near 20N115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W where seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range in mixed SE and N swell. The ridge is supporting moderate NE winds north of 25N and west of 130W, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas. Mainly gentle northerly winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough while gentle to locally moderate SE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are south of these boundaries in southerly swell. For the forecast, weak low pressure could develop tonight or Thu near 11N111W, and this feature may support fresh to locally strong winds, rough seas and thunderstorms within 90 nm of the center through the next couple of days before the low gradually weakens. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours. See hurricanes.gov for more information. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and building seas can be expected starting Thu, north of 25N and west of 130W between high pressure northwest of the area and a persistent trough extending southwestward off southern California. Little change in the pattern or impacts is expected through late week, except for slightly higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 125W. $$ Hagen