000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 03N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 87W and 89W. A tropical wave is along 108W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 107W and 109W. A weakening tropical wave is analyzed along 123W from 03N to 12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident in the vicinity of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 07N135W. The ITCZ continues from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident north 03N and east of 82W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC indicated fresh to strong winds of Cabo San Lucas between a ridge to the west and deepening low pressure over the northern Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds were also evident over the southern Gulf of California south of 25N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft off southern Mexico. Seas over the northern Gulf of California with 1 to 3 ft, and 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf of California. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident off the coast of Oaxaca. For the forecast, a deep layer trough extending southwestern off southern California will shift southward through Fri, allowing surfaced pressures to deepen slightly over the lower Colorado River valley and northern Gulf of California. Meanwhile, a weak ridge will persist between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through late Fri, and fresh SW winds pulsing over the northern Gulf of California tonight and Thu night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while moderate SE to S winds are mainly south of 02N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A pulse of moderate to locally fresh gap winds is ongoing in the Papagayo region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters and and 6 to 8 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the region supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds across the Central America offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh NE gap winds in the region of Papagayo today. Moderate, long-period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N building seas to 8 or 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into into Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to fresh SW winds converging into the area where the tropical wave near 108W is interacting with the monsoon trough. Surface pressure is lowering in this area due to this interaction, enhancing the SW flow. A combination of locally produced wind waves and longer period southerly swell is supporting combined seas of 7 to 8 ft in this area as well, near 07N110W. Farther south, southerly swell to 8 ft is reaching to the equator. Gentle to moderate SW winds and southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft is evident elsewhere east of 110W. Farther north and west, a ridge extends from high pressure centered northwest of the across the subtropical waters to near Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh NE winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W where seas in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed SE and NW swell. The interaction of the ridge and a trough extending southwest off southern California is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of 20N and west of 130W, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough while gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are south of these boundaries in southerly swell. For the forecast, weak low pressure is expected to develop today near 10N110W, not far from Clipperton Island, and this feature may support fresh to strong winds, rough seas and thunderstorms within 90 nm of the center through the next couple of days before the low gradually weakens. There is a 20% chance of of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and 30% chance through seven days. See hurricanes.gov for more information. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and building seas cane be expected starting Thu, north of 25N and west of 130W between high pressure northwest of the area and a persistent trough off extending southwestward off southern California. Little change in the pattern or impacts is expected on winds and seas through late week, except for slightly higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 125W. $$ Christensen