000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132041
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 85W north of 02N, moving west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N
between 81W and 92W.

A tropical wave is along 105W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
04N to 13N between 100W and 113W. 

A weakening tropical wave is analyzed along 121W from 03N to 
12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
evident in the vicinity of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N105W to 07N127W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N127W to 05N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is evident in the Gulf of Panama.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh winds are funneling along the coast of Baja California  
between a surface ridge west of the area and higher terrain 
inland. Seas where the winds are highest are around 7 ft, with 5 
to 6 ft seas elsewhere W of Baja California. Moderate NW winds
are also occurring in the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle winds are occurring, with seas of 4 to 6 ft, 
except 2 to 4 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the ridge will persist between Baja California
and the Revillagigedo Islands into Sat night. The ridge along 
with developing low pressure across the Gulf of California and 
western Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient to support 
fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through 
Sat. Fresh NW winds will also develop along the Gulf of 
California through tonight. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia while moderate SE to S 
winds are mainly south of 02N, including the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A pulse of moderate to locally
fresh gap winds is ongoing in the Papagayo region. Seas are 3 to
5 ft in SW swell across the Central America and Colombia 
offshore waters and and 5 to 7 ft between the coast of Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place 
across the region supporting mainly light to gentle variable 
winds across the Central America offshore waters, except for 
moderate to fresh NE gap winds in the region of Papagayo through 
tonight. Moderate, long-period SW swell will persist mainly south
of 10N building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands into Wed night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered northwest of the 
across the subtropical waters to near Baja California Sur. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of 
moderate to fresh NE winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W where 
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed SE and NW swell. The 
interaction of the ridge and a trough extending southwest off 
southern California is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of
20N and west of 130W, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough while gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are
S of these boundaries in southerly swell.

For the forecast, little change in the pattern or impacts is
expected on winds and seas through late week, except for 
slightly higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 125W. A
low pressure center may form in association with a tropical wave
around 13N110W late this week, enhancing showers and
thunderstorms in its vicinity.

$$
KONARIK