000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131517
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 84W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 10N between
80W and 90W. 

A tropical wave is along 104W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to
13N between 97W and 109W. 

A weakening tropical wave is analyzed along 119W from 03N to 
12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
evident in the vicinity of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N103W to 07N126W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N126W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is evident in the Gulf of Panama and within 
60 nm of the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh winds are funneling along the coast of Baja California 
Sur, between a surface ridge west of the area and higher terrain 
inland. Seas where the winds are highest are around 7 ft, with 5
to 6 ft seas elsewhere W of Baja California. Mainly gentle winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except slight seas over
the central and northern Gulf of California. Overnight showers
and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have dissipated. 

For the forecast, the ridge will persist between Baja California
and the Revillagigedo Islands through Sat. The ridge along with 
developing low pressure across the Gulf of California and western
Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient to support moderate to
fresh nW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters tonight 
through Sat. Moderate to fresh NW winds will also develop along 
the southern Gulf of California through tonight. Gentle winds 
will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia while moderate SE to S 
winds are mainly south of 02N, including the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A pulse of moderate gap winds
is ongoing in the Papagayo region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW 
swell across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters and
and 5 to 7 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place 
across the region supporting mainly light to gentle variable 
winds across the Central America offshore waters, except for 
developing moderate to fresh NE gap winds in the region of 
Papagayo through tonight. Moderate, long-period SW swell will 
persist mainly south of 10N building seas to 7 or 8 ft between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through mid week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered northwest of the 
across the subtropical waters to near Baja California Sur. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of 
moderate to fresh NE winds from 08N to 20N west of 120W where 
seas in the 6 to 8 ft range in mixed SE and NW swell. The 
interaction of the ridge and a trough extending southwest off 
southern California is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of
20N and west of 130W, with 6 to 7 ft combined seas. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough while gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are
S of these boundaries in southerly swell.

For the forecast, little change in the pattern or impacts is
expected on winds and seas into late week, except for slightly 
higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 130W as high 
pressure gradually builds north of the area. 

$$
KONARIK