000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 99W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 10 
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to
12N between 91W and 100W, and from 04N to 11N between 100W and
109W.  

A tropical wave is analyzed along 114W from 03N to 12N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident in the
vicinity of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N100W to 08N115W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 09N132W to beyond 05N140W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is evident N of 05N E of 80W and
from 06N to 10N between 120W and 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending into Baja California is supporting 
gentle to moderate NW winds along the offshore waters as
indicated by recent scatterometer data. An altimeter pass
coinciding with this region showed seas of 4 to 6 ft under the
influence of NW swell. In the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, 
winds remain light to gentle with seas of 4 to 5 ft in southerly 
swell. Light to gentle winds are also along the Gulf of
California with seas to 3 ft, highest at the entrance of the gulf
where locally moderate NW winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist between Baja California  
and the Revillagigedo Islands through the upcoming weekend. The
ridge along with developing low pressure across the Gulf of 
California and western Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient 
to support moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula 
offshore waters tonight through Sat. Moderate to fresh NW winds
will also develop along the Gulf of California tonight through
Thu night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate 
SE to S winds are mainly south of 02N, including the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 3-4 ft in SW
swell across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters and  
and 5 to 8 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place 
across the region supporting mainly light to gentle variable 
winds across the Central America offshore waters, except for 
developing moderate to fresh NE gap winds in the region of 
Papagayo tonight through Thu morning. Moderate, long-period SW 
swell will persist mainly south of 10N building seas to 7 or 8 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

For information about tropical waves, see section above.

A 1033 mb high centered near 38N143W extends a ridge across the
subtropical waters, extending SSE to near 18N114W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with
the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate NE winds
from 08N to 18N W of 118W where seas in the 7 to 8 ft range in
mixed SE and NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
are N of 21N and W of 135W due to the pressure gradient between
the ridge and a frontal boundary W of the area. Seas 6 to 7 ft in
northerly swell over this later region. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough while gentle to
moderate SE winds with seas 6 to 8 ft are S of these boundaries
in southerly swell.  

For the forecast, little change in the pattern or impacts is
expected on winds and seas through mid-week, except for slightly
higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 130W as high 
pressure gradually builds north of the area. 

$$
Ramos