000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis 
from 01N to 13N.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 106W north of 03N, moving west 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N
between 106W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N100W to 07N114W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N114W to 07N134W to beyond 06N140W. 
Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 
05N to 14N between 95W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SW gap winds are over the northern Gulf of 
California with seas to 7 ft. These winds are the result of a 
tightening pressure gradient between lowering pressures across 
the southern Colorado River valley and surface ridging extending
across Baja California. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail just
off the coast of Cabo San Lucas while gentle to moderate breezes
remain elsewhere along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas
in this region are 4 to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Light to
gentle variable winds are in the central and southern Gulf of
California as well as in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW gap winds pulsing over the 
northern portion of the Gulf of California will diminish Sun
night into Mon morning. Farther south, a ridge will persist 
between Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands through
mid-week, supporting fresh winds along the coast of Baja 
California Sur mainly at night, and fresh to occasionally strong 
winds off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate 
southerly winds are seen mainly south of 04N, including the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 
ft in SW swell across the region, highest between the coast of
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will remain in 
place across the region supporting mainly gentle to moderate 
winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. The
exception to this will be moderate to fresh gap winds developing
in the region of Papagayo Tue night through Wed night. Moderate,
long- period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into 
early next week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands by Mon. Enhanced moisture across the region
will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off 
southern Central America and Colombia through the next several 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high NW of the area extends a ridge S and SE to near
15N and 115W. This is supporting fresh winds north of 20N and 
west of 130W. Mostly moderate trade wind flow are from 08N to 
15N west of 120W. Combined seas are still 6 to 8 ft. Farther 
south, long-period southerly swell out of the southern hemisphere
is moving north of 03.4N. Moderate winds and seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds with
6 to 8 ft seas over the tropics west of 120W. 

$$
Ramos