000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N to 13N. A tropical wave is analyzed near 106W north of 03N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 106W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N100W to 07N114W. The ITCZ continues from 07N114W to 07N134W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 14N between 95W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong SW gap winds are over the northern Gulf of California with seas to 7 ft. These winds are the result of a tightening pressure gradient between lowering pressures across the southern Colorado River valley and surface ridging extending across Baja California. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail just off the coast of Cabo San Lucas while gentle to moderate breezes remain elsewhere along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas in this region are 4 to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California as well as in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW gap winds pulsing over the northern portion of the Gulf of California will diminish Sun night into Mon morning. Farther south, a ridge will persist between Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands through mid-week, supporting fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Sur mainly at night, and fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen mainly south of 05N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW swell across the region based on altimeter data. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the region supporting gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long- period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Mon. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 30N127W, with a trough extending to the southwest to near 26N130W. High pressure building west of the low is supporting fresh winds north of 20N and west of 130W. The low and trough have temporarily disrupted the subtropical ridge over the area, allowing trade wind flow farther south to diminish slightly. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed mostly moderate trade wind flow from 08N to 15N west of 120W. A concurrent altimeter pass showed combined seas are still 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, long-period southerly swell out of the southern hemisphere is starting to move north of 03.4N. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N through this morning, and will weaken into a trough as it approaches into Baja California later today. High pressure following the low will support fresh trade winds will persist with 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropics west of 120W. $$ Ramos