000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100342 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt. This system is experiencing easterly shear in the mid and upper levels, south of a mid/upper ridge to the north. This is enhancing leftover daytime convection farther west over Costa Rica. A tropical wave is analyzed near 92W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt. Like the other tropical wave, this system is experiencing easterly shear, supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection farther west 06N to 11N between 97W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 06N120W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 127W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds persist along the coast Baja California Sur between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro, between a ridge extending from west of the area southwestward between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands, and a trough approaching Baja California Norte. Combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft off Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere over open waters. Light and variable winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through early next week producing gentle to moderate NW winds, with occasionally fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to locally moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. A weakening cold front moving into the Baja California peninsula Sat into Sun will support strong to near-gale force SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California Sat night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N, except 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light and variable winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Tue. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed from 08N-14N and W of 120W due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas generally 4-7 ft in mixed swell. A cold front is just entering the far NW corner of the forecast region. For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N through late Sat, and dissipate as it moves into Baja California on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front, with seas building to 6-8 ft. High pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 12N west fo 130W through late Sat. the high pressure is forecast to strenghten some by early next week. $$ Christensen