000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 84W, across Costa Rica 
north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted near the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica to 11N92W to
13N90W to 07N113W. The ITCZ continues from 07N113W to 09N125W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident from the equator to 12N E of 95W to the coast of 
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N 
between 124W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California 
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4-6 ft in
mixed S and NW swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over 
the northern section of the Gulf of California along with seas of
2-3 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, light and variable winds are 
noted with seas of 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to 
the Gulf. Light to gentle W-NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft in S to 
SW long-period swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters. Areas of light smoke due to agricultural fires 
are possible over coastal waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place over the waters W
of Baja California through the rest of the week supporting gentle
to moderate NW winds, with occasionally fresh winds between Cabo
San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at night. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through
the next few nights. Gentle to locally moderate W to NW winds 
across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through 
the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds may 
return to the northern Gulf of California by Sat night with seas
building to 6 or 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW 
swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, 
Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N. Light and variable winds and 
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N. 
Higher winds are noted per scatterometer data near the convective
activity, particularly across the offshore waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Additional pulses 
of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands on Fri, building seas to 5-7 ft. Enhanced
moisture across the region will favor the development of showers
and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia 
through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 28N138W dominates
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern 
is supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed from 10N-14N
between 125W and 131W due to the pressure gradient between the
southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter data showed combined seas
of 8 to 9 ft north of 24N between 128W and 135W, likely with 
northerly swell. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the
waters north of 20N Fri through late Sat, and dissipate as it 
moves into Baja California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
expected behind the front with seas building to 6-8 ft. High 
pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh 
trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 15N west fo 
130W through late Sat. 

$$
GR