000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 83W, across western Panama north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 80W and 85W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 13N90W to 10N100W to 08N118W. The ITCZ continues from 08N118W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 01N to 12N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 125W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the exception of fresh to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S and NW swell, except 6-7 ft near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate S to SW winds are over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, and the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW long-period swell. Areas of smoke due to agricultural fires are possible over coastal waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to NW winds are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are noted S of about 06N, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft over these waters due to cross equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Fri, building seas to 5-7 ft. The general synoptic scale pattern could be setting up to favor increased convection over the region through the weekend. In fact, computer models suggest abundant tropical moisture across much of Central America and western Colombia under a southwesterly wind flow. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge anchored by 1019 mb high pressure near 29N138W dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate mostly NW to N winds west of 110W. Moderate SW flow is evident east of 110W. Recent altimeter data showed combined seas of 8 ft north of 25N between 125W and 135W, likely with northerly swell. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N Fri through late Sat, and dissipate as it moves into Baja California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front with seas building to 6-7 ft. High pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 15N west fo 130W through late Sat. $$ GR