000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 83W, across western Panama
north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N to 05N east of 81W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 08N125W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N125W to 09N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 09N to 11N between 93W and
95W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh NW winds funneling 
along the coast of Baja California between Punta Eugenia and 
Cabo San Lazaro. The fresh winds are due to moderate high 
pressure centered west of Baja California. Fresh to even strong 
winds are possible off Cabo San Lucas as well. Combined seas are 
6 to 7 ft off Baja California. The scatterometer satellite pass 
also indicated fresh westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf of
California near 30N. Gentle breezes prevail elsewhere with 3 to 
5 ft seas in mixed over open waters. Areas of smoke due to 
agricultural fires are possible over coastal waters from 
Michoacan to Jalisco.

For the forecast, the high pressure west of Baja California will
support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur 
through early next week. A weakening cold front moving into the 
peninsula Sat into Sun will support fresh to strong SW gap winds 
over the Gulf of California Sat night. Gentle breezes will 
persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW 
swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, 
Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N. Gentle SW breezes and 
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-
period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next 
week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected 
off southern Central America and Colombia as well through the 
period due to enhanced moisture.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 30N140W dominates
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern
is supporting gentle to moderate mostly NW to N winds west of
110W. Moderate SW flow is evident east of 110W. Recent altimeter
data showed combined seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 20N, likely with
northerly swell, slightly higher than wave model initializations
indicate. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the
waters north of 20N through late Sat, and dissipate as it moves
into Baja California. High pressure building in the wake of the 
front may allow trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N
to 15N west fo 130W through late Sat. Looking ahead, these fresh
NW winds may expand northward west of 130W into early next week.

$$
Christensen