000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season in the eastern Pacific region is analyzed along 78W. The wave extends from the SW Caribbean near 14N78W into the Panama and Colombia offshore forecast waters. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms, more concentrated near the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W westward across the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to 11N92W to 07N105W to 10N120W to 09N128W. The ITCZ continues to 09N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 07N E of 86W to the coast of Colombia. Similar convective activity is noted from 04N to 09N between 90W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the exception of fresh to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with seas to around 5 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, light to gentle S to SW and W to NW winds are present, except for slightly higher SW winds of moderate speeds near the Espiritu Santo Island, and just S of Tiburon Island. Seas are 1- 2 ft, except at the entrance to the Gulf, where seas are 5-7 ft due to a S swell. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 6-8 ft in this area due to S to SW long-period swell. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to NW winds are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas have subsided to 4-6 ft over these waters. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. The general synoptic scale pattern could be setting up to favor increased convection over the region starting late week and through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located near 30N140W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Its associated gradient is allowing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds are occurring from 10N to 15N W of 130W due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N and S long- period swell. An area of long- period N swell is observed across the N central waters N of 22N between 120W-135W based on a recent altimeter pass. The swell is generating seas of 8-9 ft there. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to be in control of the weather pattern across the region the remainder of the week. The N swell over the N central waters will decay by early this evening allowing for seas there to drop below 8 ft. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft over a small area in the far western part of the discussion area on Fri from about 10N to 13N and W of 135W as long-period N swell combines with wind generated seas under freshening NE trade winds there, and as a surface trough shifts westward along the deep tropics near 128W at that time. A cold front is expected to approach the northwest corner of the area late on Thu, move into the far NW corner of the forecast waters Fri, then reach from near 30N122W to 25N140W by late Sat night. Latest model guidance depicts fresh N to NE winds to follow in behind the front. $$ GR