000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070853
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W 
westward across the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border and to 12N93W to
11N102W to 10N116W and to 08N122W, where latest scatterometer 
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
06N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 88W-95W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough 
between 100W-106W, and also within 60 nm N of the trough between 
119W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
High pressure continues to dominates the waters W of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the
exception of fresh to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas 
are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Fresh to strong S to SW winds
are over the western part of the far northern section of the 
Gulf of California along with seas to around 5 ft. Elsewhere in 
the Gulf, light to gentle S to SW and W to NW are present, except
for slightly higher SW winds of moderate speeds near the 
Espiritu Santo Island, and just S of Tiburon Island. Seas are 1-2
ft, except at the entrance to the Gulf, where seas are 5-7 ft 
due to a S swell. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across 
the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 6-8 ft in this area due 
to a S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the
waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong 
S to SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California 
tonight. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo 
San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Gentle to 
moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will
change little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
S to SW winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to NW winds are over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas have to subside to mostly 4-7 ft over 
these waters due to a long-period S to SW swell as indicated by 
latest altimeter data passes.

The earlier observed scattered thunderstorm that was confined to
inland and along and just offshore the coast of Panama has
diminished during the past few hours. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted over the outer offshore waters of
Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. The general 
synoptic scale pattern could be setting up to favor increased 
convection over the region starting late week and through the 
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge, anchored by high pressure of 1022 mb
that is centered NW of the area near 33N140W, dominates the 
forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Its associated gradient 
is allowing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate 
to fresh NE to E trade winds are occurring from 06N to 15N W of 
132W due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery
of the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. 
Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N and S long-period
swell. An area of long-period N swell is confined to the N 
central waters N of 25N between 119W-135W. The swell is 
generating seas of 8-9 ft there.
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will 
continue to be in control of the weather pattern across the 
region, with a 1021 mb high pressure likely developing near 
30N141W on Wed. The N swell over the N central waters will decay
by early this evening allowing for seas there to drop below 8 
ft. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft over a small area in the 
far western part of the discussion area late on Thu night from 
about 10N to 13N and W of 135W as long-period N swell combines 
with wind generated seas under freshening trade NE winds there, 
and as a surface trough shifts westward along the deep tropics 
near 128W at that time. A cold front is expected to approach the 
northwest corner of the area late on Thu, move into the far NW 
corner of the forecast waters Fri, then reach from near 30N122W 
to 25N140W by late Sat night. Latest model guidance depicts fresh
N to NE winds to follow in behind the front.

$$
Aguirre