000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070350
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W 
westward across the Nicaragua/Costa Rica and to 12N95W to
11N103W to 10N118W and to 08N122W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 
to 06N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen within 120 nm S of the trough between 95W-100W, also 
within 30 nm N of the trough between 92W-94W and between
120W-123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge dominates the waters W of Baja California producing 
mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the exception of fresh 
to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed 
S and NW swell. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are over the
western part of the far northern section of the Gulf along with 
seas to around 5 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, light to gentle 
S to SW and W to NW are present, except for a couple of areas of
moderate SW winds near the Espiritu Santo Island, and just S of 
Tiburon Island. Seas are 1-2 ft, except at the entrance to the 
Gulf, where seas are 5-7 ft due to a S swell. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters with 
seas of 6-8 ft in this area due to a S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the waters
W of Baja California through the rest of the week supporting 
gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh winds between 
Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong S to SW winds 
will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at 
night through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little 
through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may 
return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore 
forecast waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. The earlier 6-8 ft long-period S to SW 
that was propagating through these waters has subsided slightly
to 5-7 ft as indicated by an altimeter data pass that earlier
sampled a sector of wave heights over these waters.

Scattered thunderstorm activity is confined to inland and 
along and just offshore the coast of Panama. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Long-period cross 
equatorial S to SW swell moving through the region, including 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will
continue to subside tonight.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure 
centered just NW of the area near 32N141W, dominates the forecast
waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Its associated gradient is 
allowing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E trade winds are occurring from 05N to 09N W of 133W
due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery of 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas 
are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N and S swell with a few 
exceptions. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in N swell N of 27N between 120W 
and 135W. S to SW swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft are still noted N 
of 06N between 88W and 93W, and from 07N to 16N between 110W and 
113W based on altimeter data.
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will 
continue to be in control of the weather pattern across the 
region, with a 1021 mb high pressure likely developing near 
30N141W on Wed. Long-period cross equatorial S to SW swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere will continue to subside tonight. The 
northerly swell over the N waters will begin to subside tonight 
with seas below 8 ft by late Wed. A cold front is expected to 
approach the northwest corner of the area late in the week 
reaching from near 30N127W to 25N140W by late on Sat. Fresh N to 
NE winds are expected behind it.

$$
Aguirre