000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062118
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W 
westward across northern Costa Rica to 11N90W to 07N102W to 
09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to beyond 03N140W.  
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 08N E
of 95W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 95W and 104W, 
and from 07N to 11N between 115W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge dominates the waters W of Baja California producing 
mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the exception of fresh 
to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed 
S and NW swell. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of 
California, with a couple of areas of moderate SW winds near 
the Espiritu Santo Island, and just S of Tiburon Island. Seas 
are 1-2 ft, except at the entrance to the Gulf, where seas are 
3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the 
Mexican offshore waters with seas of 6-8 ft in this area due to 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W
of Baja California this work-week, supporting gentle to moderate
NW winds, occasionally fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in the 
northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to locally strong NW 
winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the 
forecast period. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW 
Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. 
Offshore southern and southwestern Mexico, long- period S swell 
will subside by tonight. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may
return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore 
forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to 
locally moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Higher winds are observed per scatterometer
data near the convective activity. Long-period S to SW swell
continues to propagate through the entire area producing seas of
6-9 ft. An altimeter pass confirmed the presence of these sea 
heights across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Long-period cross 
equatorial S to SW swell moving through the region, including 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will
continue to subside tonight.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure centered well N of 
the area near 37N139W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W, generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds are noted from 05N 
to 09N W of 135W due to the pressure gradient between the
southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N
and S swell with a few exceptions. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in N 
swell N of 27N between 120W and 135W. S to SW swell with seas of 
8 to 9 ft are still noted N of 06N between 88W and 93W, and from 
07N to 16N between 110W and 113W based on altimeter data.
 
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to be in control of the 
weather pattern across the region, with a 1021 mb high pressure 
likely developing near 30N141W on Wed. Long-period cross equatorial
S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to subside
tonight. The northerly swell over the N waters will begin to subside
tonight with seas below 8 ft by late Wed. A cold front is expected
to approach the northwest corner of the area late in the week 
reaching from near 30N127W to 25N140W by late on Sat. Fresh N to 
NE winds are expected behind it.

$$
GR