000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W westward to 11N95W to 10N110W to 09N120W and southwestward to to 07N130W to low pressure near 07N138W 1012 mb and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 180 nm S of the trough between 108W-112W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 90W-100W, also within 120 nm N of trough between 98W-106W, within 60 nm S of trough between 115W-118W and within 120 nm N of trough between 125W- 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW-SE oriented surface ridge is located to the west of the Mexico offshore waters. Its associated gradient is allowing for mostly moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California Sur, where seas are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Offshore Baja California Norte, mainly gentle W winds are present along with seas of 5-8 ft in primarily NW swell. Moderate to fresh S winds are in the northern Gulf of California, where seas have built to 3-5 ft. Gentle winds are in the southern and central Gulf of California, with 1-2 ft seas, except at the entrance to the Gulf, where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Cabo Corrientes, with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere off southern and southwestern Mexico, from Manzanillo eastward to the Guatemala border, but seas are 6-8 ft in this area due to southerly swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, the high pressure ridging west of the area will build slightly eastward today. Fresh to strong winds S to SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. Offshore southern and southwestern Mexico, long-period S swell will continue through this morning before subsiding through tonight. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate SW winds are likely occurring off Nicaragua and El Salvador. Overnight ASCAT data indicates mostly gentle W winds over these waters, while moderate S winds prevail in between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Long-period S to SW swell is moving through the entire area producing seas of 6-9 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along and just offshore of Colombia from 02N to 06N E of 78W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure across the forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the offshore through the forecast period. Long-period cross equatorial S to SW swell moving through the offshore waters, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will begin to slowly subside this morning. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be over most of the offshore waters during the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure center well N of the area near 45N136W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, generating a moderate anticyclonic flow. Fresh NW to N winds are present N of 29N between 124W-131W per latest ASCAT data. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds are N of the aforementioned low that is along the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N and S swell with a few exceptions. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed fresh to strong southwest through northwest winds from 07N to 11N and between 106W-111W. These winds appear to be enhanced by the monsoon trough-related convection that is between 103W-110W. Seas are 8-10 ft S of 14N and E of 114W due to a long-period S to SW swell. Seas are 8-10 ft in N swell N of 27N and E of 133W. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will begin to shift eastward today in response to a cold front that is expected to approach the northwest corner of the area late in the week. The low along the monsoon trough will weaken to a trough as it crosses 140W this afternoon. Long-period cross equatorial S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere S of 15N and E of 110W will decay this morning. The northerly swell over the N waters will continue to propagate S through early this morning, spreading seas of 8-10 ft N of 26N and E of 135W. That swell will subside late tonight into Wed. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to enter the NW corner of the forecast area by late Fri, reaching from near 30N127W to 25N140W by late on Sat. Fresh N to NE winds are expected behind it. $$ Aguirre