000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua near 12N87W to 10N100W
to 1010 mb low pres near 09N122W to 1010 mb low pres near 
05N137W to 04.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 09.5N to 12.5N between 86W and 93W, and from 06N to 10N
between 96W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 85W and 112W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from
05N to 08N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A NW-SE oriented surface ridge is located to the west of the
Mexico offshore waters. Its associated gradient is allowing for 
mostly moderate NW to N winds over these waters. Winds near Cabo 
San Lucas are NW moderate to fresh. Seas over these waters are 
5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell. In the Gulf of California, winds
are light to gentle, except for moderate southerly over the
northern Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft, except for higher seas of 3 ft 
in the far northern part and 3-5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds are elsewhere over the 
offshore waters of Mexico along with seas of 6 to 8 ft due to a 
S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will begin to 
shift eastward tonight into Tue. The gradient between the high
pressure ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of
California will support strong to near-gale force S to SW winds
over the northern Gulf of California beginning late this
afternoon and lasting through the overnight hours tonight. Fresh
to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at 
night through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little 
through the period. Offshore S and SW Mexico, seas to 8 ft in S 
to SW swell will subside Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 6-8 ft in a S to SW 
swell are across the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas in the 9-11 ft range due to 
long-period SW swell are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Moderate S winds prevail across the offshore waters of 
Colombia with seas of 6-9 ft due to a S to SW swell. In the Gulf
of Panama, light to gentle S to SW winds along with seas of 4-6 
ft due to a S to SW swell are present there. Higher seas of 6-9 
ft due to the long-period S-SW swell are just S of the entrance 
to the Gulf of Panama.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of the 
offshore waters of Central America, heaviest from northern Costa 
Rica to El Salvador.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
over the waters S of Guatemala through the end of the week. 
Winds will become gentle W to NW over the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Thu. Large, long-period 
cross equatorial SW swell will continue to spread across all the
Central America and South America waters today, peaking at 8-9 ft
late today off most of Central America. Between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, seas are peaking now at 9 to 11 ft and will 
begin to subside by early Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure 
center offshore of Oregon and Washington, dominates mainly the 
forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W generating a gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow. However, moderate to fresh N winds
are likely occurring N of 25N between 122W and 135W. Moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds are N of the aforementioned lows that 
are along the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a 
mix of N and S swell with a few exceptions. Seas are 7-9 ft S of
14N and E of 114W due to a long-period S to SW swell. Seas of 8
to 9 ft are noted N of the low pres near 09N122W. Seas are 7 to
10 ft in N swell N of 27N and E of 133W.
 
For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will begin to shift 
eastward Tue in response to a cold front that is expected to 
approach the northwest corner of the area late in the week. The 
westernmost low along the monsoon trough will weaken to a trough 
as it crosses 140W on Tue afternoon. The low located near 
09N122W will drift very slowly northwestward over the next 
couple of days. Long-period cross equatorial S to SW swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate through most 
of the waters S of 15N between 91W-110W today before decaying
tonight into early Tue. The northerly swell over the N waters
will continue to propagate S through early Tue, spreading seas of
8 to 10 ft N of 25N and E of about 133W. That swell will subside
late Tue night into Wed.

$$
Hagen