000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 05 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N72W to 11N86W to 11N100W to 10N110W to low pressure near 08N121W 1012 mb to low pressure near 07N135W 1012 mb and to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 92W-99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 82W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 100W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N of the trough between 113W-120W, within 60 nm either side of the trough between 123W-128W, and within 60 nm N of the trough between 135W-139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Its associated gradient is allowing for mostly moderate NW to N winds over these waters. Winds near Cabo San Lucas are NW moderate to fresh in speeds. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft in a mixed of NW and S swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable, except for gentle to moderate S to SW winds over the far northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft, except for higher seas of 3-5 ft in the far northern part and near the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds are over the offshore waters of Mexico along with seas to 8 ft due to a S to SW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will begin to shift eastward Tue. Fresh NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will support fresh to strong S to SW winds there tonight and Tue night. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. Seas to 8 ft in S to SW swell will subside Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 5-7 ft in a S to SW swell are across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the 8-11 range ft due long-period SW swell are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands per latest altimeter data pass over that part of the area. Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the offshore waters of Colombia with seas of 5-8 ft are due to a S to SW swell. In the Gulf of Panama, light to gentle S to SW winds along with seas of 4-6 ft due to a S to SW swell are present there. Higher seas of 6-9 ft due to the long-period S-SW swell are just S of the entrance to the Gulf due to a SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the most of the offshore waters of Central America. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the waters S of Guatemala through the end of the week. Winds will become gentle W to NW over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Thu. Long-period cross equatorial SW swell producing seas to 9 ft over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will begin to subside Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure center well N of the area near 46N136W, dominates mainly the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Per overnight ASCAT data passes moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds are N of the aforementioned lows that are along the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N and S swell, with the exception of 7-9 ft seas S of 08N between 93W-117W due to a long-period S to SW swell Seas to 8 ft also due to the long-period S to SW swell are noted from 06N to 11N between 118W-123W. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will begin to shift eastward Tue in response to a cold front that is expected to approach the northwest corner of the area late in the week. The westernmost low along the monsoon trough will weaken to a trough as it crosses 140W on Tue afternoon. The low located near 08N121W will drift northward over the next couple of days. Long- period cross equatorial S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate through most of the waters S of 12N between 91W-110W today and reach most of the Central American waters tonight into Tue as it decays. Seas generated by strong northerly winds just W of California will push S of 30N Mon through late Tue night, with seas 8-10 ft over the waters N of 25N between 120W-135W. $$ Aguirre