000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040345
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low
pres near 07N120W to a second low pres of 1010 mb located near 
07N133W. The ITCZ continues from 07N133W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N
between 110W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 12N W of 129W, and from 00N to 11N between 85W and
96W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
The pressure difference between surface ridging extending to the
Baja California offshore waters and low pressure along Mexico
continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the
Baja peninsula offshore waters where seas remain in the 5-6 ft
range in SW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light 
and variable with seas in the 1 to 2 ft range, expect 3 to 4 ft 
near the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds 
prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to control the weather pattern
across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through at least
Mon with little change in winds and seas. As a result, expect 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception of moderate 
to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. A 
developing low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will
support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds at night Mon 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected near Cabo San 
Lucas at night through the forecast period. Moderate NW winds 
across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to light to 
gentle speeds on Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds are across the Central America
offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell across the region, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of
the Galapagos Islands and seas to 7 ft in the SW forecast waters 
of the Islands.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will 
prevail through mid-week. Building seas of 8 to 9 ft in SW swell
will propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands tonight into Sun, reaching the offshore waters 
of W Panama and Costa Rica on Mon. This swell event will gradually
subside Mon night into Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure N of the area anchored by a 1031 mb high near 
42N139W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 17N W of
120W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 20N
where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. An area of moderate to 
fresh NE winds is along the southern periphery of the ridge W of 
116W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and two low
pressures embedded within the monsoon trough. Seas between the
monsoon trough and the southern periphery of the ridge are 
generally 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through mid-week
while the low pressure along the monsoon will drift westward, 
crossing 140W by Mon night into Tue. Long period S to SW swell 
from the Southern Hemisphere will cross the Equator tonight, 
building seas to 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate 
across most of the waters S of 07N between 92W and 118W by Sun 
afternoon, reaching 10N by Sun night. Seas generated by strong 
northerly winds just W of the State of California will push S of 
30N Mon through Tue with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting roughly the 
waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W.

$$
Ramos