000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N100W to 06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 09N W of 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 80W and 94W, and from 05N to 10N between 111W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure NW of the area anchored by a 1027 mb high near 41N148W and a 1026 mb high near 35N134W extends a ridge SE to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters where recent altimeter data show seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate NW winds are across the SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Oaxaca while light to gentle winds are across the offshore waters of Chiapas. Seas in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters are in the 5 to 6 ft range in SW swell. Otherwise, in the Gulf of California winds are light to gentle with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will develop over Mexico Sun night while an elongated area of low pressure will develop over Arizona and California extending a trough along the Gulf of California. This area of low pressure will prevail through mid- week and along a persistent ridge extending to the Baja Peninsula will continue to support moderate to fresh NW winds across the Peninsula offshore waters with pulses of strong winds from the evening through early morning hours off Cabo San Lucas. Seas will remain in the 5-7 ft range W of Baja through the forecast period. The developing low and trough will support fresh SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California Sun night, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Mon night into Tue. Moderate winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle speeds on Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W winds are across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to moderate SE to S winds are across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell across the entire region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough will prevail into Mon. Moderate SW cross equatorial swell will begin to propagate across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands tonight along with seas to 8 ft. These seas will spread NE to the southern Colombia offshore waters by Mon before subsiding Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure N of the area anchored by a 1027 mb high near 41N148W and a 1026 mb high near 35N134W extends a ridge S to 17N. There are several areas of moderate to locally strong convection in the vicinity of both the ITCZ and monsoon trough mainly W of 87W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with these areas of convection continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds between ITCZ/monsoon and 15N where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of 15N and W of 115W with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain in place through mid-week. A pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific today and build through Sun night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 10N. Looking ahead, N swell is forecast to push S of 30N Mon through Tue building seas to 8-10 ft N of 20N and E of 135W. $$ Ramos