000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030341
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N100W to 08N115W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N between
130W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 12N between 98W and 114W, and from 02N to 07N between 114W and
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
Strong high pressure NW of the area anchored by a 1027 mb high
near 41N148W and a 1026 mb high near 35N134W extends a ridge SE
to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The gradient of
pressure between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico is
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula
offshore waters where altimeter data show seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Locally strong winds are likely N of Punta Eugenia tonight.
Moderate W to NW winds are across the SW Mexican offshore waters
from Jalisco to Guerrero while light to gentle winds are across
the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas in the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters are in the 5 to 6 ft range in SW swell.
Otherwise, in the Gulf of California winds are light to gentle
with seas to 3 ft.  

For the forecast, high pressure will develop over Mexico Sun
night while an elongated area of low pressure will develop over
Arizona and California extending a trough along the Gulf of 
California. This area of low pressure will prevail through mid-
week and along a persistent ridge extending to the Baja Peninsula
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW winds across the
Peninsula offshore waters with pulses of strong winds from the 
evening through early morning hours off Cabo San Lucas. Seas will
remain in the 5-7 ft range W of Baja through the forecast period.
The developing low and trough will support fresh SW to W winds in
the northern Gulf of California Sun night, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds Mon night into Tue. Moderate winds across the SW
Mexican offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle speeds
on Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the entire area. Seas 
are 5-7 ft in long period S to SW swell, except 7 to 8 ft near 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of 
the monsoon trough into early next week. Moderate SW cross 
equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before 
a new large long-period SW swell builds into the regional waters
Sat night through Mon, then decaying thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high pressure ridge extends from a 1026 mb high 
pressure near 35N135W to 21N118W. The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and lower pressure along the monsoon trough and
ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE winds N of the ITCZ to 
near 14N and W of 115W. Seas to 8 ft prevail with these winds. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with seas of 5-7 
ft. SW swell prevails S of 08N between 97W-120W supporting seas 
to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge will remain in place 
through tonight, before weakening and shifting gradually 
eastward through the weekend. The current SW swell over the 
waters E of 120W and S of 10N will continue to subside through 
tonight. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will 
reach the eastern tropical Pacific Sat and build through Sun 
night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 
10N. Looking ahead, N swell is forecast to push S of 30N Mon 
through Tue building seas to 8-10 ft N of 20N and E of 135W.

$$
Ramos