000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020827
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 09N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N110W to 07.5N120W to 08N127W to 03N140W.
Scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between
106.5W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 06N to 11N between 81W and 103W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 11N between 81W and 89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass from 02/0401 UTC shows 
fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore of Cabo San Lucas, 
where seas are likely 6 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds are likely occurring elsewhere within 150 nm of the west 
coast of Baja California Sur with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Moderate NW 
winds prevail offshore Baja California Norte, where seas are 6 to
8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds prevail 
across the Gulf of California, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Farther 
east, from Cabo Corrientes to the Guatemala border, winds are 
gentle to locally moderate from the WNW, with seas of 5-7 ft in S
to SW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh to locally strong winds from the evening through early 
morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula and
off Cabo San Lucas into the middle of next week. Fresh SW to W 
gap winds in the Gulf of California will diminish late this
morning, then return again beginning Sun night through Tue night. 
Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, locally 
fresh at night offshore S-SW Mexico this weekend. N swell off
Baja California Norte will subside by tonight. Another N swell
will move through the Baja offshore waters Mon into Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the entire
area. Seas are 5-7 ft in long period S to SW swell, except 7 to 8
ft near the Galapagos Islands. Earlier showers and thunderstorms
offshore Central America have decreased in coverage and intensity
over the past 6 hours.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to be located
fairly far north, over northern Central America, as Tropical
Depression Two lingers in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough into 
early next week. Moderate but subsiding S to SW cross equatorial
swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before new large
long-period SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night 
through Mon, then decaying thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high pressure ridge extends from a 1026 mb high
pressure near 35N135W to 24N124W to 15N110W. The ridge axis is
surrounded by gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N 
and W of 114W. Moderate S winds are noted S of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 95W and 130W. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere.
To the south of 15N, seas are 6-8 ft in S swell. Seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail from 15N to 26N. Seas of 6-8 ft in N swell prevail N of 
26N and E of 133W.

For the forecast, high pressure with a broad surface ridge will 
remain in place through early today, before weakening and 
shifting gradually eastward through the weekend. The current S to
SW swell over the waters E of 120W and S of 10N will continue to
subside through this morning. A new pulse of large cross 
equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific Sat 
and build through Sun night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east 
of 120W and south of 12N. Looking ahead, N swell is forecast to 
push S of 30N Mon through Tue building seas to 8-10 ft N of 25N 
between 120W and 135W.

$$
Hagen