000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 12N100W to 07N120W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 07N128W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N 
between 77W and 85W, from 04N to 12N between 85W and 95W, and
from 05N to 11.5N between 101W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters 
within 120 nm of the Baja California coast S of Punta Eugenia, 
locally strong near Cabo San Lucas, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere offshore. Across the Gulf of California, variable 
gentle to locally moderate to fresh winds are noted. Gentle to 
locally moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico, except light to gentle southerly winds E of 
about 98.5W, including in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4-6 
ft in long period S to SW swell over the open waters off Mexico, 
except mixed with NW swell from near Cabo Corrientes extending
west-northwestward. Seas of 1-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of 
California, except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 2-4 ft 
are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh to locally strong winds from the evening through early 
morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula into 
early next week. Fresh SW to W gap winds will briefly occur in 
the Gulf of California tonight, then again beginning Sun night 
and Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere, locally fresh at night offshore S-SW Mexico this 
weekend. New N swell will move through the Baja offshore waters 
tonight through Fri night, and then again Mon into Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near
the Galapagos Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 6-7 ft well
offshore Guatemala. Scattered convection continues across the 
waters from near the coast of Panama westward to well offshore El
Salvador and Guatemala and is expected to continue tonight. 
Winds and seas may be higher in this convection.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to be located
fairly far north, over northern Central America, as Tropical
Depression Two lingers in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough into 
early next week. Moderate but subsiding S to SW cross equatorial
swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before new large
long-period SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night 
through Mon, then decaying thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of
115W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. The exception is
N of 27N and E of 130W, where moderate N winds prevail, where
seas are 7-8 ft. Seas range from 6-8 ft S of about 15N, 4-6 ft
from 15N to 26N, and 5-8 ft N of 26N.

For the forecast, high pressure with a broad surface ridge will 
remain in place through early Fri, before weakening and shifting 
gradually eastward through the weekend. The current S to SW swell
over the waters E of 120W and S of 10N will begin to subside
tonight into early Fri. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW
swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific Sat and build 
through Sun night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W 
and south of 10N. Looking ahead, N swell is forecast to push S of
30N Mon through Tue building seas to 7-9 ft N of 27N between 
120W and 135W.

$$
Hagen