000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011440 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78.5W to 13.5N94W to 08N110W to 07N122W. The ITCZ continues from 07N122W to 08N126W then resumes W of low pressure near 04N131W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 84W, and within 270 nm SE to S of the monsoon trough between 90W and 113W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm NW to N of the monsoon trough between 100W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N between 118W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters within 120 nm of the Baja California coast, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas, with gentle to moderate winds further offshore. Across the Gulf of California, variable gentle winds are noted except moderate westerly gap winds prevail across several prominent gaps in each portion of the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except light to gentle southerly winds E of about 98.5W, including in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4-6 ft in long period S to SW swell over the open waters off Mexico, except mixed with NW swell from near Cabo Corrientes W-NW. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted across Gulf of California downwind of the gap winds, and 1-3 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 2-4 ft are noted. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility across portions of southern Mexico. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds from the evening through early morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula into Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds will briefly occur in the Gulf of California each night into Fri, then again beginning Sun night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, locally fresh at night offshore S-SW Mexico this weekend. New N swell will move through the Baja offshore waters tonight through Fri night, and then again Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail from Panama southward, with light to gentle winds north of Panama. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Scattered to numerous convection continues across the waters E of 84W and is expected to continue into tonight. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility offshore Guatemala. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to lift N of 10N and into Nicaragua and Honduras Fri through the weekend as low pressure tries to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of the trough into early next week. Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before large SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a 1027 mb Pacific high located N of the area near 37N139. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 1009 mb low pressure embedded in the ITCZ near 07N128W is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds supported by a tight pressure gradient offshore California are N of 27N between 120W and 131W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 116W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range from 5-8 ft S of about 15N and 5-6 ft N of 15N, except around 7 ft near the moderate to fresh northerly winds around 30N. For the forecast, high pressure and a broad surface ridge will remain in place through early Fri, before weakening and shifting gradually eastward through the weekend, while the low pressure embedded in the ITCZ drifts westward while gradually weakening. Winds will weaken very modestly across the trade wind belt over the weekend. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific Sat and build through Sun night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 10N. $$ Lewitsky