000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010742
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N80W to 10N99W to 08N123W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 06N128W to 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N E
of 87W, and from 05N to 10N between 93W and 107W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 87W and 93W
and from 04N to 10N between 110W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters 
within 120 nm of the Baja California coast, with gentle to 
moderate winds further to the W and beyond 120W. Across the Gulf 
of California, moderate westerly gap winds prevail across several
prominent gaps in each portion of the Gulf. Gentle to locally 
moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S swell over the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted across Gulf of California 
downwind of the gap winds, and 1-3 ft are elsewhere over the 
Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 2 to 4 ft 
are noted. Smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting
visibility across portions of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh to locally strong winds from the evening through early 
morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula into 
Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds will briefly occur
in the Gulf of California each night into Fri. New N swell will 
move through the Baja offshore waters tonight through Fri night 
and then again Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Mainly gentle onshore winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross 
equatorial SW swell. Scattered moderate convection continues 
across the waters E of 79W and is expected to continue into 
tonight. Smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting
visibility offshore Guatemala.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough will lift N of 10N and into
Nicaragua and Honduras Fri through the weekend as low pressure
develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SW
winds are expected S of the trough into Sun. Moderate S to SW 
cross equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat 
before large SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night 
through Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a
1030 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 38N.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and W of 120W. Gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and E
of 112W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 
from 6-8 ft S of 15N and 5-6 ft N of 15N.

For the forecast, high pressure and a broad surface ridge will
remain in place through early Fri, before weakening and shifting
gradually eastward through the weekend. Winds will weaken very
modestly across the trade wind belt over the weekend. A new 
pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern 
tropical Pacific Sat and build through Sun night, raising seas 
to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 10N.

$$
KONARIK