000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N92W to 07N119W. The ITCZ continues from 07N119W to 08N126W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N E of 95W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 105W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters within 150 nm of the Baja California coast this afternoon, with gentle to moderate winds further to the W and beyond 120W. Across the Gulf of California, moderate westerly gap winds prevail across several prominent gaps in each portion of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in S swell over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted across Gulf of California downwind of the gap winds, and 1-3 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 3-5 ft are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds from the evening through early morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds will briefly occur in the Gulf of California each night through early Fri. New N swell will move through the Baja offshore waters Thu night into early Sat and then again Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Mainly gentle onshore winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross equatorial SW swell. Scattered moderate convection continues across the waters N of 02N and is expected to continue into Thu night. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will lift N of 10N and into Nicaragua and Honduras Fri through the weekend as low pressure develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of the trough through Sun. Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before large SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night into Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a 1030 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 38N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and W of 120W. Fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft prevail within 120 nm N of around 08N126W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 112W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range from 6-8 ft S of 18N and 5-6 ft N of 18N. For the forecast, high pressure and a broad surface ridge will remain in place through early Fri, before weakening and shifting gradually eastward through the weekend. Winds will weaken very modestly across the trade wind belt over the weekend. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific on Sat and build into Sun night, raising seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 10N. $$ KONARIK