000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 09.5N91W to 10.5N100W
to 08N120W. The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to low pres near 
07.5N125W 1010 mb to 04N134W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N E of 
96W, and from 04N to 10.5N between 96W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters within
120 nm of the Baja California coast, with gentle to moderate 
winds further to the W to beyond 120W. Across the Gulf of 
California, westerly gap winds to near 20 kt are occurring across
several prominent gap in each portions of the Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in S swell over the open waters off 
Mexico, except to 7 ft off of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4-5 ft are
noted across Gulf of California downwind of the gap winds, and 
1-3 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the 
Gulf where seas of 4-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh winds from the evening through early morning hours across 
the waters west of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. Fresh
to strong S to SW gap winds will briefly occur in the northern 
Gulf of California each night into Thu. Moderate seas will 
continue through the week across the Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and Galapagos 
Islands offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to moderate 
SW monsoon winds are expected in the South American offshore 
zones. Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate 
regional seas through Sat before large SW swell gradually builds 
into the area waters Sat night into the start of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a
1030 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 39N.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 120W. Fresh NE
winds and seas to 8 ft prevail within 120 nm across the N
semicircle of 1010 mb low pressure that has formed along the 
ITCZ near 07.5N125W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted 
S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere. Seas range from 5-7 ft S of 15N and 4-6 ft N of 
15N.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through Fri. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist across 
the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W, and
some fresh E winds are expected just N of the ITCZ. A new pulse 
of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical
Pacific on Sat. 

$$
Stripling