000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N80W to 11N95W to 07N128W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N128W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N E of 108W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00.5N to 02N between
86W and 89W, and from 06.5N to 10N between 115W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail within 120 nm of the
Baja California coast in the offshore waters, with gentle to
moderate winds further to the W. For the Gulf of California,
light winds prevail, except for some locally fresh SW winds in
portions of the northern Gulf. Mainly moderate NW winds are
noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6
ft in S swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft 
off of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the northern
Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, 
except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 4-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical Pacific
high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a surface
trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of fresh
winds from the evening through early morning hours across the
waters west of the Baja Peninsula. Fresh to strong S to SW gap
winds will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California each
night through Thu. Moderate seas will continue through the week
across the Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross 
equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, mainly light winds will prevail north of the 
monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to moderate SW 
monsoon winds are expected in the South American offshore zones. 
Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate regional 
seas through Sat before large SW swell gradually builds into the 
area waters Sat night into the start of next week. 


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a
1033 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 40N.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 120W. 
Gentle to locally moderate moderate S to SW winds are noted S of
the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere. Seas range from 5-7 ft S of 15N and 4-6 ft N of
15N.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through Fri. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist across 
the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W, and
some fresh E winds are expected just N of the ITCZ. A new pulse 
of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical
Pacific on Sat. 

$$
KONARIK