000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300243
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N102W to 06N126W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N 
between 81W and 92W, and from 04N to 11N between 99W and 116W. 


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula, as 
well as over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 
ft in S swell over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-3 ft are
noted over the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 1-2 ft are 
elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where 
seas of 4-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical high
pressure in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of
California will support pulses of fresh winds during the
overnight and early morning hours west of the Baja Peninsula.
Fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will briefly occur in the
northern Gulf of California each night through the forecast
period. Seas of 4-6 ft across the Mexico offshore waters will
continue through the week.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America may be restricting visibility N of 
Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate SW monsoon winds are 
expected in the South American offshore zones. Moderate S to SW 
long period swell will dominate. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds N of the 
ITCZ to near 15N and W of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 5-7 ft S of 15N, and 4-6 ft
N of 15N.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through mid-week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W, and some locally fresh E winds are expected just N of the
ITCZ. A new set of long- period S to SW swell will approach the 
eastern tropical Pacific Wed. 

$$
KONARIK