000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290721
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 09N108W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 07N129W to 
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends
from 02N to 13N E of 121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula. Seas are 4 to
6 ft in S swell. Gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of 
California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds prevail 
across the offshore waters of the southern Mexico coast with 
moderate seas. Smoke from agricultural fires may be impacting 
waters offshore Chiapas. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist through mid-week. Winds are expected to pulse to 
fresh during the overnight and early morning hours west of the 
Baja Peninsula during this time. Fresh to strong S to SW gap 
winds will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California each 
night through the forecast period. Seas of 4-6 ft across the 
Mexico offshore waters will continue through most of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly light to gentle
winds are noted. Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in 
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas have 
began to subside across the waters and now range 7-9 ft in 
southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms noted throughout the 
waters. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may be 
restricting visibility N of Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to locally moderate SW monsoon winds are expected 
in the South American offshore zones. Moderate S to SW long
period swell will dominate. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America may occasionally restrict visibility for 
offshore waters of Nicaragua northward.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N157W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated 
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through mid-week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W, and some locally fresh E winds are expected just N of the
ITCZ. A new set of long- period S to SW swell will approach the 
eastern tropical Pacific Wed. 

$$
KONARIK