562 
AXPZ20 KNHC 282110
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 09N108W to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 06N132W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 13N between 90W and 126W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also noted E of 89W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula with locally 
fresh winds S Punta Eugenia and S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 
to 6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf 
of California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds also 
prevail across the offshore waters of the southern Mexico coast 
with moderate seas. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the 
offshore waters of Oaxaca. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist through early week. Winds are expected to pulse to 
fresh during the overnight and early morning hours west of the 
Baja Peninsula during this time. Fresh to strong S to SW gap 
winds will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California each
night through the forecast period. Seas will become 4-6 ft 
across the offshore waters by Monday across most of the Mexico 
offshore waters, then continue through most of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly light to gentle
winds are noted. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds prevail in the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas have began to
subside across the waters and now range 7-9 ft in southerly 
swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted 
in the offshores of Panama, Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue to subside
throughout the area and drop below 8 ft by tonight. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate SW monsoon winds are expected in the South American 
offshore zones. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N157W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated 
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through mid-week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Pacific
will gradually subside below 8 ft tonight. A new set of long- 
period S to SW swell will approach the eastern tropical Pacific
later in the week. 

$$
AReinhart