827 
AXPZ20 KNHC 272126
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N107W to 05N127W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N127W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N 
between 86W and 114W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate NW winds prevail west of 
the Baja Peninsula. Locally fresh winds are noted near Punta
Eugenia. Seas range 4-6 ft in N to NW swell. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
seas 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted in the 
Gulf of California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds also 
prevail across the offshore waters of southwest Mexico with 
moderate seas. No significant convection is occurring in the
Mexico offshore waters at this time. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist into early next week. Winds are expected to pulse to
fresh to locally strong during the overnight and early morning 
hours west of the Baja Peninsula during this time. Locally fresh 
S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California 
each night through the forecast period. Fresh northerly gap 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish by tonight. Seas
will become 4-6 ft across the offshore waters by Monday across
most of the Mexico offshore waters through most of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly gentle to
moderate winds are noted. Seas are now in the 8-12 ft range 
between the equator and 02N from southern hemisphere swell, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 7-11 
ft range offshore Central America. Scattered thunderstorms are 
also noted in the offshores of Central America southward to the 
west coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, building long- period S to SW swell will
continue from the southern hemisphere with seas to 11 ft. The 
higher amounts of swell will not reach the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands to Nicaragua due to it being blocked. Seas will subside 
throughout the area on Sun. Otherwise, light to gentle winds 
prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW 
monsoon winds expected in the South American offshore zones. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N148W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through early next week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will 
persist across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially 
west of 120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical 
Atlantic will peak today before subsiding below 8 ft Sun night. 

$$
AReinhart