000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua/Costa Rica border near 11N86W to 09N106W to 05N127W. The ITCZ continues from 05N127W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 88W and 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail west of the Baja Peninsula. Seas range 5-7 ft in N to NW swell. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California with slight seas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds also prevail across the offshore waters of southwest Mexico with moderate seas. For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California will persist into early next week. Winds are expected to pulse to fresh to locally strong during the overnight and early morning hours west of the Baja Peninsula during this time. Locally fresh S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California each night through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the S. Seas are now in the 8-11 ft range between the equator and 02N from southern hemisphere swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range offshore Central America, on a building trend as the swell continues to approach the area. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the offshores of Central America southward to the west coast of Colombia. For the forecast, building long- period S to SW swell will continue from the southern hemisphere. Seas up to 11 ft are expected to continue through most of the waters. The higher amounts of swell will not reach the lee of the Galapagos Islands to Nicaragua due to it being blocked. Seas will subside throughout the area on Sun. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW monsoon winds expected in the South American offshore zones. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb located well northwest of the area near 36N162W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters. For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W through the weekend. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Long-period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic will peak today before subsiding below 8 ft Sun night. $$ AReinhart