000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270809
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 06N130W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 100W and 
117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are observed west of the Baja Peninsula with 
locally fresh winds likely nearshore Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, except fresh winds that
have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
offshore Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure in
the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California
will persist into early next week. Winds are expected to pulse 
to fresh to locally strong during the overnight and early morning
hours west of the Baja Peninsula during this time. Locally fresh
S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California 
each night through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong 
northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail
through tonight. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
may lead to reduced visibility offshore waters S of Cabo 
Corrientes. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

offshore Central America, winds are light to gentle. South of 
the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the S. 
Seas are now in the 8-11 ft range between the equator and 02N 
from southern hemisphere swell, except in the lee of the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range offshore 
Central America, on a building trend as the swell approaches. 

For the forecast, the main story this weekend is building long-
period S to SW swell from the southern hemisphere. Seas are 
currently 9-11 ft west of Ecuador and will build to 8-10 ft in 
the remainder of the area today. The exception is north of the 
Galapagos Islands to Nicaragua, where the swell will be blocked. 
Seas will abate throughout the area on Sun. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to 
moderate SW monsoon winds expected in the South American offshore
zones. Smoke from agricultural fires may restrict visibility 
offshore Guatemala today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb located well northwest of the area near
36N162W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the
Equator.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through the weekend. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long-period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic 
will peak Sat before abating below 8 ft Sun night. 

$$
KONARIK