000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 06N130W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N between
100W and 117W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 05N
to 10N, east of 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are observed west of the Baja Peninsula with
locally fresh winds likely nearshore the Vizcaino Peninsula, 
Cabo Lazaro, and Cabo San Lucas. Winds have decreased and are now
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore 
Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist through the weekend. Winds are expected to pulse to 
fresh to locally strong during the overnight and early morning 
hours west of the Baja Peninsula through early next week. Locally
fresh S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of 
California each night through the forecast period. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will regenerate overnight before conditions improve on Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

North of Costa Rica, winds are light to gentle. South of the 
monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the SW. Seas
are now in the 8-11 ft range between the equator and 02N from
southern hemisphere swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range offshore Central 
America, on a building trend as the swell approaches.

For the forecast, the main story this weekend is building long-
period S to SW swell from the southern hemisphere. Seas are 
currently 9-11 ft west of Ecuador and will build to 8-10 ft in 
the remainder of the area through Sat. The exception is north of 
the Galapagos Islands to Nicaragua, where the swell will be 
blocked. Seas will abate throughout the area on Sun. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
gentle to moderate SW monsoon winds expected in the South 
American offshore zones.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb located well northwest of the area near
36N162W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the
Equator.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through the weekend. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long-period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic 
will peak Sat before abating below 8 ft Sun night. 

$$
Flynn