000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261527
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N130W. It then 
transition the ITCZ and continues to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 
10N between 104W and 120W. Isolated moderate convection is 
observed from 05N to 10N, east of 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Volcanic ash from recent eruptions of Popocatepetl in Mexico may
be leading to some ashfall and reduced visibility offshore
Oaxaca. In addition, smoke and haze from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico may be restricting visibility offshore Mexico S
of Cabo Corrientes. Locally fresh NW winds are ongoing nearshore
Cabo Lazaro, Cabo San Lucas, and Cabo Corrientes, with locally 
fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California. Locally fresh
to strong northerly winds have also developed in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the
southern Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California through the weekend supporting moderate
to fresh NW to N winds. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds 
are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near 
Cabo San Lucas through early next week. Locally fresh to strong S
to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California 
each night through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong 
northerly gap winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Sat. These winds will diminish in the afternoon on both 
days. Ash from eruptions of Volcano Popocatepetl may restrict 
visibility near the coast of Oaxaca today. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

N of the monsoon trough, light winds prevail offshore N of Costa
Rica, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 5 to 7
ft in southerly swell, with some 8 ft seas now spreading 
northward, reaching near the Equator. Smoke from agricultural 
fires may be restricting visibility offshore Guatemala and El 
Salvador.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central
American offshore waters north of Costa Rica through the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds are 
forecast for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia 
and Ecuador through tonight, then become gentle. Seas building to
7 to 11 ft in long-period S to SW will propagate across the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight 
before slowly subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft associated with this
swell event will reach the offshore waters of western Panama and
Costa Rica Fri into Sat. Reduced visibility due to haze from 
agricultural fires will persist across northern central American 
through at least tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb located well northwest of the area near
37N162W extends a ridge over the forecast region north of 10N 
and west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. A recent altimeter pass
found seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the area, in NE swell. Gentle 
to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to the Equator. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region 
north of 10N and west of 110W through the weekend. Mainly
moderate NE trade winds will persist across the southern 
periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Long-period S to
SW swell will cross the Equator today and propagate northward 
reaching about 05N tonight and to near 10N east of 101W by Sat 
afternoon.

$$
Flynn