021 AXPZ20 KNHC 251842 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1842 UTC Thu May 25 2023 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia near 11N73W to 08N83W to 08N100W to 08N112W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N125W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 83W-90W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 109W-112W, within 120 nm north of the trough between 114W-115W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 115W-118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 101W-105W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W-124W and between 127W-130W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ west of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated Overnight ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia and moderate to locally fresh winds S of Punta Eugenia. Fresh winds are noted near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area, with the exception of 6-7 ft across the outer forecast waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 2-4 ft seas are present in the northern part of the Gulf while mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere with seas in the 1-3 ft range, except for 3- 5 ft seas due to a S swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California through the upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected Fri night into Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate, with locally fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California each night through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected offshore Jalisco and Colima through Fri. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. These winds will diminish in the afternoon on both days. Reduced visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico today. Remnant volcanic ash from moderate emissions earlier are forecast to remain inland over Oaxaca through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are found across the offshore forecast waters from Guatemala to Panama based on recent satellite derived wind data. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5-7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail north of the Equator to about 06N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and 4-6 ft seas are forecast for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds will become mainly gentle. Seas building to 8-10 ft in long-period S to SW will propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and Fri. Seas of 8 ft associated with this swell event will reach the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica Fri night into Sat. Reduced visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist across northern central American through at least Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb located well northwest of the area near 36N143W extends a ridge over the forecast region north of 10N and west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for a moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow, with an area of mostly fresh NE trade winds just north of the ITCZ W of 130W. Seas over this part of the area are 6-8 ft primarily in NE swell. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the Equator. Northerly swell producing seas of 8-9 ft as noted in overnight on altimeter data are over the waters north of about 26N between 119W-135W, with an area of 8 ft seas from 21N to 26N west of 136W as also seen in overnight altimeter data. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W through the upcoming weekend. Mostly fresh NE trade winds will persist across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Seas associated with the northerly swell event across the northern forecast waters will subside to less than 8 ft by early this afternoon. Long-period S to SW swell will cross the Equator on Fri, and propagate northward reaching about 05N by Fri night. $$ Aguirre