000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240316
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ASHFALL ADVISORY...

Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has been active and
continues to erupt. Volcanic ash has moved 210 nm ESE from the
summit, and 180 nm SE from the summit likely reaching parts of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the offshore waters of Oaxaca.  
Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall
through early Wed afternoon based on the latest forecast from the
VAAC, Washington. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners
encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are 
encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather 
Service by calling 305-229-4425. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia
near 10N74W to 09N90W to 09N106W. The ITCZ continues from 09N106W to
06N125W to 03N140W. A weak trough is within the ITCZ 117W/118W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to
08N between 82W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is near
the trough axis from 04N to 10N between 110W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW to N winds continue across the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area, with the exception
of higher seas of 5-7 ft seas in N swell N of Punta Eugenia. 
In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate southerly 
winds and 1-3 ft seas are present, except for 3-5 ft seas due to 
a south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters of 
central and southern Mexico. The Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico 
near 19N99W has been active and is currently emitting frequent 
moderate ash. An Ashfall Advisory is in effect through early Wed
afternoon. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to support moderate NW 
to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California through
Fri, then become moderate to fresh on Sat. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected during the overnight and early 
morning hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. 
Moderate to fresh, with locally strong S to SW gap winds will 
occur in the northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5-7 
ft due to a NW swell will gradually propagate across the outer 
offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. From Wed 
evening through Fri, NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and Colima
should become moderate to locally fresh, and seas reaching 6-7 
ft. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural fires will
persist for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico 
through tonight.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found offshore from Guatemala, El 
Salvador and Nicaragua. Seas range from 4-6 ft in these waters. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5-7 ft seas in 
southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of Costa Rica 
and southward.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central
American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica most of the week. 
Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and 4-6 ft seas
are anticipated for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds 
will become mainly gentle, however, seas will build to 7-10 ft 
in a large southerly swell. Reduced visibilities due to haze 
from agricultural fires will persist across northern central 
American through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1034 mb located N of area near 38N143W dominates
the forecast region north of 10N and west of 110W. A moderate to
locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of 
this system, with an area of mostly fresh NE trade winds just 
north of the ITCZ from 08N to 11N between 120W-134W based on GFS
model guidance. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds based on
altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Large northerly swell producing seas
of 8-10 ft are currently reaching as far south as 25N between 
121W-140W. An altimeter data pass confirmed the presence of 
these sea heights. 

For the forecast, the high pressure center will continue to 
dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through Fri. Mostly 
fresh NE trade winds will continue across the southern periphery 
of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell and 
associated 8 to 10 ft seas will reach 25N by early Wed morning, 
then gradually decay afterward.

$$
GR