000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232226 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2226 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Updated Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northwest Colombia to southern Costa Rica and to 09N91W to 09N103W and to 09N109W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N120W to 05N130W and to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 84W-89W and from 03N to 06N between 78W-80W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Convergent surface winds north of the monsoon trough mentioned above are triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters that border southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. Latest Geo Color satellite imagery reveals light to moderate haze along and offshore the central and southern Mexican coast due to agricultural burning. Moderate NW to N winds continue across the offshore waters of Baja California, with an area of moderate to locally fresh winds just southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area, with the exception of higher seas of 6-7 ft seas in N swell near 30N120W. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 1-3 ft seas are present, except for 3-5 ft seas due to a south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate N winds are seen at the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13N. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. The Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has been active and is currently emitting frequent moderate ash. Some of this ash may reach far southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from late tonight into Wed. Mariners should exercise caution as visibility may become restricted. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to support moderate NW to N winds west and south of Baja California through Fri, then become moderate to fresh on Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh, with locally strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a NW swell will gradually propagate across the outer offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. From Wed evening through Fri, NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and Colima should become moderate to locally fresh, and seas reaching 6-7 ft. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Except moderate winds off the Papagayo region, light to gentle winds are found offshore from Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Seas range from 4-6 ft in these waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5-7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and southward. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica most of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and 4-6 ft seas are anticipated for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds will become mainly gentle, however, seas will build to 7-10 ft in a large southerly swell. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for the central American offshore waters north of Panama through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. A moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system, with an area of mostly fresh NE trade winds just north of the ITCZ from 06N to 07N between 117W-121W based on GFS model guidance. These winds are likely enhanced by convection along the ITCZ. Recent altimeter data suggest seas of 6-8 ft within this area of trade winds. Gentle to moderate Southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Large northerly swell producing seas of 7-10 ft are currently reaching as far south as 25N between 121W-140W. An altimeter data pass revealed seas to 10 ft near 29N126W and seas to 11 ft near 30N126W. A large area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of the ITCZ to near 03N and between 114W-120W. This activity is being sustained by broad high pressure aloft. For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through Fri. Mostly fresh NE trade winds will continue across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell and associated 7 to 10 ft seas will reach 25N by early Wed morning, then gradually decay afterward. $$ Aguirre