000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231728 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from southern Costa Rica across 09N95W to 08N107W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from 01N to 07N between the Colombia coast and 82W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 08N107W across 05N125W to beyond 140W at 03N. Widely scattered moderate convection is near both features from 03N to 10N between 82W and 108W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 108W and 123W. Updated sections below ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A modest surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore from Chiapas, Mexico and Guatemala. Convergent surface winds north of the monsoon trough mentioned above are triggering isolated thunderstorms farther offshore from Oaxaca, Mexico. Latest GeoColor satellite imagery reveals light to moderate haze along and offshore from the central and southern Mexican coast due to agricultural burning. Moderate NW to N winds continue across the offshore waters of Baja California, with an area of moderate to locally fresh winds just southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area, with the exception of 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell near 30N120W. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present, except 3 to 5 ft in south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate N winds are seen at the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13N. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to support moderate NW to N winds west and south of Baja California through Fri, then become moderate to fresh on Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell will gradually propagate across the outer offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. From Wed evening through Fri, NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and Colima should become moderate to locally fresh, and seas reaching 6 to 7 ft. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Except moderate winds off the Papagayo region, light to gentle winds are found offshore from Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft in these waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and southward. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica most of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are anticipated for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds will become mainly gentle but seas will rise to between 7 and 10 ft in large southerly swell. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for the central American offshore waters north of Panama through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. A moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system, with an area of fresh to strong NE winds just north of the ITCZ from 06N to 07N between 117W and 121W based on GFS model guidance. These winds are likely enhanced by convection along the ITCZ. Recent altimetery data suggest seas at 6 to 8 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate Southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Large northerly swell with related 7 to 10 ft seas are currently propagating toward 27N between 121W and 137W. For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through Fri. Fresh with locally strong trade winds will prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell and associated 7 to 10 ft seas will reach 25N by early Wed morning, then gradually decay afterward. $$ Forecaster Chan