000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230913
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N74W to 09N90W and to 08N105W. The ITCZ continues from 08N105W
to 06N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 08N between 78W and 81W, near 08N95W, 
and from 03.5N to 10N between 110W and 121W. Similar convective 
activity is just offshore Guatemala.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer indicate moderate NW to N winds across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with an area of
moderate to locally fresh winds between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo 
San Lazaro. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area, with the exception 
of 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell near 30N120W. In the northern Gulf 
of California, a small area of moderate to fresh S to SW winds 
is noted particularly from 30N to 31N W of 114W. Elsewhere 
across the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds 
prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft in south swell at the 
entrance to the Gulf. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 15N. Light and variable winds 
are observed across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters 
with sea heights of 4-6 ft primarily in SW swell. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico and northern Central America may 
reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW 
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where latest SAB 
Analysis shows a medium concentration.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the work-week
producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Pulsing winds of 20 kt 
are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near 
Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected in 
the northern Gulf of California at night through Thu ahead of a 
surface trough forecast to persist over the Baja California 
Peninsula. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will gradually propagate 
across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through 
Thu. By Wed night into Thu, expect moderate to locally fresh NW
winds across the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco with
building seas of 6-7 ft.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted across the Papagayo region, while
moderate to locally fresh winds are seen per scatterometer data 
in the western Gulf of Panama, and between the Azuro Peninsula 
and Coiba Island just offshore western Panama. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate W to NW prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the offshore forecast waters for the next few days. Long-period 
S to SW swell producing seas of 5-7 ft will continue to cross the
Equator through Thu night. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due 
to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. Looking ahead, 
seas building to 8-10 ft in long-period SW swell are expected 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri, with little 
change through Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 10N and west 
of 110W. A moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted 
under the influence of this system, with an area of fresh to
strong NE winds from 07N to 11N between 118W and 125W based on
scatterometer data. These winds are likely enhanced by convection
nearby. Seas are to 8 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Northerly swell, 
with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range, is currently propagating 
across the N waters, particularly N of 28N between 121W and 137W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N
of 10N and W of 110W this work-week. Fresh to locally strong 
trade winds will prevail across the southern periphery of the 
ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell, with seas in the
8-10 ft range, will continue to propagate across the northern 
forecast waters covering the area N of 26N between 120W and 
136W on Wed. This swell event is forecast to decay on Thu.

$$
GR