000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W and to 08N103W. The ITCZ continues from 08N103W to 06N120W to 03N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 07N to 09N between 81W and 83W, from 06N to 08N between 88W and 91W, and from 05N to 10N between 112W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Mainly moderate NW to N winds are seen across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under the influence of a ridge. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft in south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Light and variable winds are observed across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with sea heights of 4-6 ft primarily in SW swell. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and northern Central America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where latest SAB Analysis shows a medium concentration. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the work- week producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Pulsing winds of 20 kt are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California at night Tue through Thu ahead of a surface trough forecast to persist over the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will gradually propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are noted across the Papagayo region, and in the Gulf of Panama tonight while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore forecast waters for the next few days. Long-period S to SW swell producing seas of 5-7 ft will continue to cross the Equator through Thu night. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. Looking ahead, seas building to 8-10 ft in long-period SW swell are expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri, with little change through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 12N and west of 110W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system, with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An area of 8-9 ft seas due to a mix of NE and SW long-period swell is located 06N to 08N between 124W and 127W Fresh trades are noted over the west-central waters. Northerly swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range are currently propagating across the N waters, particularly N of 29N between 122W and 134W For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through at least mid-week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell, with seas in the 8-10 ft range, will continue to propagate across the northern forecast waters covering the area N of 26N between 120W and 135W by Wed evening. This swell event is forecast to decay on Thu. $$ GR