000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220909
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica Excessive Rainfall: 
Convection continues to flare-up along the monsoon trough E of
95W to the coast of Colombia, and across parts of Colombia,
Panama and Costa Rica. A favorable upper-level pattern will
continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area today, leading
to the potential for additional heavy rainfall. This activity
could lead to significant flooding in the region. Computer 
models indicate that abundant tropical moisture will persist in 
this area over the next couple of days.

Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local or 
national meteorological service for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 
09N90W to 07N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 06N125W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 10N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. A cluster of 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05.5N to 09N
between 122W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
elsewhere from 04N to 10N between 116W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. A small area of moderate
to locally fresh NW winds is noted near the coast S of Punta 
Eugenia to about 26N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft W of Baja California. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec
region and downwind to near 14N, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft 
range based on the most recent altimeter pass. In the Gulf of 
California, mainly light and variable winds prevail with seas of
1 to 3 ft, except 3-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Light and 
variable winds are seen across the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters with sea heights of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW
swell.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the Tehuantepec region through
this morning, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt by early this afternoon
with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. This gap wind event is forecast 
to end by early this evening. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
expected in the northern Gulf of California at night Tue through
Thu ahead of a surface trough forecast to persist over the Baja 
California Peninsula. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell will gradually
propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro 
tonight through Thu. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in
the southern offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural
fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, and
downwind to about 88W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh 
N winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 6 to 8
ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo
region tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the
remainder of the offshore waters. Additional pulses of long period
SW swell will cross the Equator today with sea heights mainly in
the 5 to 7 ft range. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
offshore Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia today. Reduced visibilities
in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore
waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. Looking
ahead, building seas of 8 to 10 ft in long period SW swell are 
expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the forecast area N of 12N W of 110W.
Mainly moderate anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence 
of this system, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N
of 10N and W of 110W through at least mid-week. Fresh to locally
strong trades will prevail across the southern periphery of the 
ridge, particularly W of 120W. Northerly swell, with seas in the
8 to 10 ft range, will begin to propagate across the northern 
forecast waters by this evening, covering the area N of 26N 
between 120W and 136W by Tue evening. 

$$
GR