000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Colombia and Panama Excessive Rainfall: Very heavy rain prevails over portions of western Colombia and eastern Panama today. A favorable upper-level pattern will continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area through early Mon, leading to the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Rains between now and early Mon could lead to significant flooding in the area. Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local or national meteorological service for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N106W. The ITCZ continues from 06N106W to 07N126W, then resumes W of a trough near 07N133W to 03N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 00N-12N and E of 110W. Scattered showers are noted from 02N-13N between 123W-138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface high pressure ridging extends just west of the area. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data depict strong to near gale force N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending S to 13N. Fresh NW winds prevail off Cabo Corrientes to Manzanillo. Similar winds are occurring near Cabo San Lucas, with moderate NNW winds extending S to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N winds have moved into the waters well offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail from Cabo San Lucas southward, except 8-11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4-6 ft W of Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh NW winds near Cabo Corrientes will diminish this afternoon. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh this afternoon, then pulse to strong to near gale force tonight. Winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and again Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue. Moderate NW to N swell will affect the waters west of Baja California Norte Mon night through Tue night. Winds over the northern Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to strong at night, beginning Tue night. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details about a heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia and Panama. Fresh NE to E winds are likely occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending W to 89W and the Galapagos. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will diminish by midday today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the waters. S swell affecting the area will subside slightly Mon into Tue. Then, a renewed large S swell is likely to enter the offshore waters of South America by Thu night. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through tonight before diminishing in coverage and intensity on Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas south of 03N and east of 110W are in the 7-8 ft range in S swell. Seas are 6-8 ft in the trade wind zone north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 18N. For the forecast, N to NE winds over the northern waters may increase to fresh tonight through Tue as a N swell moves south of 30N, increasing seas to 8-10 ft north of 25N late Mon into Wed. At the same time, the area of fresh trade winds will expand a bit N of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 120W, with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas should diminish across most of the area by Wed night into Thu. $$ ERA