000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and Panama Excessive Rainfall: Very heavy rain
has fallen over portions of western Colombia and eastern Panama
since Friday night. A favorable upper-level pattern will 
continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area through early
Mon, leading to the potential for additional heavy rainfall.
Current satellite imagery shows scattered strong showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Panama and far NW Colombia. Rains
between now and early Mon could lead to additional significant 
flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast products 
from your local or national meteorological service for additional
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N100W to 07N113W to 08N126W to 02N140W. 
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 02N
to 09N between 82W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 100W and 111W.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N to 13N between
77W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface high pressure ridging extends just west of the area.
Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring this evening from Cabo 
Corrientes SE to beyond Manzanillo, where seas are currently 7 to
8 ft. Strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec extend S to
14.5N, with seas to 8 ft. Light to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail from Cabo Corrientes southward 
and southeastward. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail W of Baja California to
the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 1-3 ft in the northern and 
central Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds near Cabo Corrientes 
will continue through tonight before diminishing early Sun.
Strong to near gale force N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through early Sun before diminishing to fresh, but
will pulse up to strong again Sun night through early Mon before
winds diminish to moderate or weaker. Seas are forecast to reach
9 to 11 ft there tonight into early Sun. Winds near Cabo San 
Lucas will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sun night and again 
Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through Tue. Looking ahead, winds over the northern Gulf of 
California may pulse to fresh to strong during the middle of next
week. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW 
Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural 
fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia and Panama. Some strong
showers and thunderstorms are occurring well offshore of Costa
Rica, as well as near the coast of eastern Panama.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are likely occurring over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region, extending W to 87.5W. Gentle to moderate
SW winds generally prevail across most of the area from south of
Papagayo to Ecuador. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range from the Guatemala offshore waters to the 
Costa Rica offshore waters. Seas to 8 ft are covering the area 
south of 07N and east of 88W, as well as south of 02N and west of
88W, due to the large S swell affecting the area.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Papagayo region tonight before diminishing Sun. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the 
waters. S to SW swell affecting the area will decay very 
gradually through Mon. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will 
continue offshore Colombia and Panama through Sun. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the 
Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing 
agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 22N and west
of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas south 
of 03N and east of 110W are in the 7-8 ft range in S swell. Seas
are 6-8 ft in the trade wind zone north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4-6
ft north of 18N.

For the forecast, northerly winds over the northern waters may 
increase to fresh early next week as a N swell moves south of 
30N, increasing seas to 8-10 ft north of 25N. At the same time, 
trade winds will increase to fresh N of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 
120W, with seas to 8 ft.

$$
Hagen