000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201530
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will continue to bring enhanced 
moisture to portions of Colombia and eastern Panama through the
remainder of the weekend. This pattern will lead to the 
potential for heavy rainfall across portions of western Colombia
and eastern Panama, now through Mon. Numerous strong convection 
is currently observed on satellite imagery over much of western 
and central Colombia. These rains could lead to significant 
flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast products 
from your local or national meteorological service for additional
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N105W to 02N140W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 11N and E of 104W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
extending S to 14N. Fresh NW winds are off Cabo Corrientes to 
near Manzanillo. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
of 5-7 ft prevail from Cabo Corrientes southward and southeastward.
Seas of 4-6 ft prevail W of Baja California to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas are 1-3 ft in the northern and central Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to 
fresh to strong through tonight with seas building to 8 ft. 
Fresh to strong N to NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours through 
early Mon, with near-gale force winds expected tonight into early
Sun and seas 8 to 10 ft. Winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to
fresh to locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue. Looking ahead,
winds over the northern Gulf of California may pulse to fresh to
strong during the middle of next week. Reduced visibilities in 
haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to 
smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia and eastern Panama. 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are likely occurring over the Gulf
of Papagayo region, extending W to 89W. Seas are likely 6-7 ft 
in the area. Moderate S winds are found west of Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Gentle or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 
ft range from the Guatemala offshore waters to the Costa Rica 
offshore waters. Recent altimeter satellite data show seas of 8 
to 9 ft covering the area south of 06N, due to the large S to SW
swell affecting the area.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
in the Papagayo region during the late night and early morning 
hours through tonight. However, the strongest winds are expected  
through today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 
waters. Long period S to SW swell affecting the area will begin 
to gradually decay late today into tonight. Heavy showers and 
thunderstorms will continue offshore Colombia and Panama through 
the remainder of the weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due 
to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 22N and west
of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas south 
of 07N and east of 110W are in the 8-9 ft range in S swell, with 
seas of 5-7 ft prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell over the southern 
waters will gradually subside through the weekend. Northerly winds
over the northern waters may increase to fresh early next week as
a N swell moves south of 30N. At the same time, trade winds will
increase to fresh N of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 120W.

$$
ERA