079 
AXPZ20 KNHC 200848
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will continue to bring enhanced 
moisture to portions of Colombia and eastern Panama through the
remainder of the weekend. This pattern will lead to the 
potential for heavy rainfall across portions of western Colombia
and eastern Panama, now through early Mon. Numerous strong 
convection is currently observed on satellite imagery over much
of western and central Colombia. These rains could lead to 
significant flooding in the area. Please read the latest 
forecast products from your local or national meteorological 
service for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N86W to 05N106W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N106W to 08N122W to 03N132W to beyond 
02N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
observed within 120 nm of the coasts of Colombia, Panama and
southern Costa Rica from 02N to 09.5N between 77W and 85W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N 
to 08N between 93W and 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High clouds and isolated showers prevail over the waters from 
the entrance to the Gulf of California southward to offshore
Michoacan. A weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore 
waters of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec extending S to 14N. Fresh NW winds are off Cabo 
Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail from Cabo Corrientes southward
and southeastward. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail W of Baja California to
the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 1-3 ft in the northern and
central Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to 
fresh to strong today through tonight with seas building to 8 ft.
Fresh to strong N to NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours through 
early Mon, with near-gale force winds expected tonight into 
early Sun and seas 8 to 10 ft. Winds near Cabo San Lucas will 
pulse to fresh to locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue. 
Looking ahead, winds over the northern Gulf of California may
pulse to fresh to strong during the middle of next week. Reduced
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia and eastern Panama. 
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is observed within 
120 nm of the coasts of Colombia, Panama and southern Costa Rica.

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are likely occurring over
the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending W to 88W. Seas are likely
6-7 ft in the area. Moderate S winds are found west of Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Gentle or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
5 to 7 ft range from the Guatemala offshore waters to the Costa 
Rica offshore waters. Recent altimeter satellite data show seas
of 8 to 10 ft covering the area south of 06N, due to the large S
to SW swell affecting the area.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours through tonight. However, the strongest winds are
expected now through mid-morning today. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail across the waters. Long period S to 
SW swell affecting the area will begin to gradually decay late
today into tonight. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible 
from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by ongoing agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas south of 07N and east of 110W are in the 8-9 ft range in S 
swell, with seas of 5-7 ft prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell over the southern 
waters will gradually subside through the weekend. Northerly winds
over the northern waters may increase to fresh early next week as
a N swell moves south of 30N. At the same time, trade winds will
increase to fresh N of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 120W.

$$
Hagen