573 
AXPZ20 KNHC 192000
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will bring enhanced moisture to
western sections of Colombia and eastern Panama over the weekend.
This pattern will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall 
across portions of western Colombia, especially within 90 nm of 
the Pacific Ocean, as well as over eastern Panama, beginning
tonight and lasting through early Mon. These rains could lead to
moderate flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast
products from your local or national meteorological service for 
additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N101W to 05N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N east
of 92W, from 03N to 21N between 98W and 113W, and from 00N to 
06N between 120W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle 
winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula, as well as
over the northern and central Gulf of California. Moderate winds
are in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas. 
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6
ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-3 ft are 
noted over the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft in the entrance
to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to 
fresh to strong early Sat through Sat night. Fresh to strong N to
NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late 
night to early morning hours through Mon, with near- gale force 
winds possible Sat night into early Sun. Winds in the southern 
Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to
locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will 
prevail through the forecast period, except in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and also offshore of the Manzanillo area, where seas 
could exceed 8 ft over the weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze 
are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event expected to affect western Colombia and
eastern Panama over the weekend.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending W to 88W. Moderate to fresh winds are found 
west of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range offshore Central 
America. Seas are 7 to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, in long period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail across the waters. A set of long period S to 
SW swell will continue to spread northward across the area 
through tonight before gradually decaying Sat into Sat night. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to 
the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing 
agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 22N and W 
of 130W. Moderate winds are south of 03N and east of 120W. Light
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas south of 08N and east 
of 115W are in the 8-9 ft range in S swell, with seas of 5-7 ft 
prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell over the southern 
waters will gradually subside tonight into the weekend.

$$
AL