000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N96W to 11N111W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N111W to 06N121W to 02N134W to beyond 
03N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 04N to 16N between 95W and 115W, enhanced by upper-level
diffluence. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 00N to 06N between 115W and 134W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 02.5N to 08N between 77W and 
95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Gentle W to NW winds are noted west of the Baja 
California peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are in the
northern and central Gulf of California. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are likely occurring from the southern Gulf of
California to Manzanillo. Gentle or weaker winds are occurring
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. Seas
of 2-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft 
at the entrance of the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen more than 180 nm offshore of Oaxaca, Guerrero and 
Michoacan.

For the forecast, winds in the southern Gulf of California and 
near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight
and possibly again Sun night and Mon night. Winds near Cabo 
Corrientes will pulse to fresh to strong late Fri night through 
Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours 
starting late Fri night and continuing through early Mon morning.
Locally near-gale force winds are possible there Sat night into 
early Sun. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail through the forecast 
period, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and also offshore of 
the Manzanillo area, where seas could exceed 8 ft over the 
weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and 
SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural 
fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo as well as 
the Gulf of Panama. Moderate winds are also noted west of 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 6 to 10 ft
between Ecuador and the area south of the Galapagos Islands, in S
to SW swell.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours tonight through Sat night. Southerly winds between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain moderate to locally
fresh through early Fri afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail across the waters. A set of long period S to 
SW swell will continue to spread northward across the area 
through Fri night before gradually decaying Sat into Sat night. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to 
the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing 
agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 31N136W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the 
ITCZ to 16N and west of 122W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of
22N and W of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are 
south of the ITCZ and east of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas south of 05N and east of 120W are in the 
7-10 ft range in S swell, with seas of 5-7 ft prevailing 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 
ft over the southern waters will continue to spread northward
through Fri, mainly east of 120W. This swell will bring seas of 
8 ft or greater as far north as 07N by early Fri before seas 
gradually subside Fri night into the weekend.

$$
Hagen