000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181431
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N105W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N105W to 09N115W to 03N125W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N 
to 11N between 95W and 120W, and from 00N to 06N between 131W 
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the
offshore waters of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula southward to offshore Cabo
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are also noted over the Gulf
of California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are in the 6-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of
2-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft at
the entrance of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, winds in the southern Gulf of California and 
near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight
and Sun night. Winds near Cabo Corrientes will pulse to fresh to
strong Fri night through Sat night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night to 
early morning hours starting late Fri night. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft will 
prevail through the forecast period, except in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, where seas could exceed 8 ft over the weekend. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted over the Gulf of
Papagayo as well as the Gulf of Panama. Moderate winds are noted
west of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds
are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7 ft
south of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours tonight through Sat night. Southerly winds between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate to 
locally fresh late today through early Fri. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail across the waters. A set of long 
period S to SW swell will spread northward across the area 
through Fri night before decaying. Reduced visibilities in haze 
are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters 
due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 26N133W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of 
the ITCZ to 15N and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are in 
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to locally fresh SE to 
S winds are south of the ITCZ between 90W and 120W. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas south of the equator are
in the 7-9 ft range, with seas of 6-7 ft prevailing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 ft 
will continue to spread northward today, mainly east of 120W. 
This swell will spread seas of 8 ft or greater as far north as 
07N by early Fri before seas gradually subside Fri night into the
weekend.

$$
AL